Sidebar on Higher Education and Jobs of the Future
Today I find myself pondering the future with respect to jobs that will exist after the economy shrinks and the respective need for higher education.
I work in higher education, and have been involved in one fashion or another my entire adult life. I have a vested interest in higher education. I am the product of higher education. I also have my oldest son at the university as an undergraduate right now, plus my younger two will graduate from high school this spring and are off to university next year as well. As I reflect on the shrinking economy and the cost of my children getting their education, and then think ahead to what is to come, I find I have very mixed feelings about what they are and are about to do.
Admittedly James Howard Kunstler's new novel, World Made By Hand, has shook me up somewhat. So much of what we take for granted today for employment, travel, and access to resources will likely be gone after Peak Oil. Not that I will miss it that much, at least as I anticipate it coming. And I am somewhat shaken by the recent decision by Seabury-Western Theological Seminary, an Episcopal seminary near Chicago, to not offer a traditional residential Master of Divinity any more, due in part to a self-recognition of an over-abundance of Episcopal seminaries, but largely due to an ongoing budget deficit, which the continued education of traditional students will only make worse.
Higher education, particularly graduate -level education, is not cheap. It is a very large and costly industry. I have wondered on many occasions how students will be able to afford post-secondary education in the future, and in turn how many institutions, and what kinds of institutions, of higher education will be viable in twenty years.
When I think ahead to the world described in Kunstler's novel, and to the nature of essential jobs in small towns and rural areas (but also cities), I come up with a very short list of those needing post-secondary education, at least those needing a Bachelor's degree, let alone a Masters and beyond. Comparing that list (more in a moment) against the number of students getting degrees and the fields these studies are in, one quickly becomes aware of a chasm between needs and wants. The needs are very small compared to the surplus of fields graduating students. I don't dispute the economics that currently, and have for several decades, favored the income earned by college graduates as being substantially more than the cost of education and the earnings of a student who didn't complete college. But I can't help wondering if those days are already numbered. And therefore wondering if my children will in turn be favored by their education, and the cost (i.e., debt) we must bear in the near term to make it happen.
So what jobs need higher education for their preparation? Here is my short list:
Pretty much all of the other activities/professions you'd expect people to be involved don't require a college degree. Some vocational training perhaps, but not a college degree. And even those listed above will not number into being nearly so many people as our educational system is set up to produce, let alone all the other graduates we are turning out. So the higher educational system is bound to shrink. How extensive, and how quickly, is what we will discover as Peak Oil unfolds.
For now am I saying "no" to my children going to school? No. I can't point my finger at enough certainties to do that. But I am admittedly very cautious about the amount of money it may be prudent to put into their education. And I am questioning my own future for employment down the road. Some people are saying many factors will be converging on or about 2010 or 2011, which is very soon.
I guess I/we will find out.
I work in higher education, and have been involved in one fashion or another my entire adult life. I have a vested interest in higher education. I am the product of higher education. I also have my oldest son at the university as an undergraduate right now, plus my younger two will graduate from high school this spring and are off to university next year as well. As I reflect on the shrinking economy and the cost of my children getting their education, and then think ahead to what is to come, I find I have very mixed feelings about what they are and are about to do.
Admittedly James Howard Kunstler's new novel, World Made By Hand, has shook me up somewhat. So much of what we take for granted today for employment, travel, and access to resources will likely be gone after Peak Oil. Not that I will miss it that much, at least as I anticipate it coming. And I am somewhat shaken by the recent decision by Seabury-Western Theological Seminary, an Episcopal seminary near Chicago, to not offer a traditional residential Master of Divinity any more, due in part to a self-recognition of an over-abundance of Episcopal seminaries, but largely due to an ongoing budget deficit, which the continued education of traditional students will only make worse.
Higher education, particularly graduate -level education, is not cheap. It is a very large and costly industry. I have wondered on many occasions how students will be able to afford post-secondary education in the future, and in turn how many institutions, and what kinds of institutions, of higher education will be viable in twenty years.
When I think ahead to the world described in Kunstler's novel, and to the nature of essential jobs in small towns and rural areas (but also cities), I come up with a very short list of those needing post-secondary education, at least those needing a Bachelor's degree, let alone a Masters and beyond. Comparing that list (more in a moment) against the number of students getting degrees and the fields these studies are in, one quickly becomes aware of a chasm between needs and wants. The needs are very small compared to the surplus of fields graduating students. I don't dispute the economics that currently, and have for several decades, favored the income earned by college graduates as being substantially more than the cost of education and the earnings of a student who didn't complete college. But I can't help wondering if those days are already numbered. And therefore wondering if my children will in turn be favored by their education, and the cost (i.e., debt) we must bear in the near term to make it happen.
So what jobs need higher education for their preparation? Here is my short list:
- The medical profession, primarily doctors, nurses, and dentists
- Lawyers (and hopefully not so many of those...)
- Teachers, including elementary, secondary, and some post-secondary (to educate the same and those in the other professions being listed)
- Pastors, priests, clergy
- Some engineers, particularly understanding structures and materials for safety sake
Pretty much all of the other activities/professions you'd expect people to be involved don't require a college degree. Some vocational training perhaps, but not a college degree. And even those listed above will not number into being nearly so many people as our educational system is set up to produce, let alone all the other graduates we are turning out. So the higher educational system is bound to shrink. How extensive, and how quickly, is what we will discover as Peak Oil unfolds.
For now am I saying "no" to my children going to school? No. I can't point my finger at enough certainties to do that. But I am admittedly very cautious about the amount of money it may be prudent to put into their education. And I am questioning my own future for employment down the road. Some people are saying many factors will be converging on or about 2010 or 2011, which is very soon.
I guess I/we will find out.
posted by Kevin Anderson K9IUA at 4:25 PM
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